Spatial and temporal drivers of zoonotic pathogen contamination of an agricultural watershed

In regions where animal agriculture is prominent, such as southern Alberta, higher rates of gastrointestinal illness have been reported when compared with nonagricultural regions. This difference in the rate of illness is thought to be a result of increased zoonotic pathogen exposure through environmental sources such as water. In this study, temporal and spatial factors associated with bacterial pathogen contamination of the Oldman River, which transverses this region, were analyzed using classification and regression tree analysis. Significantly higher levels of fecal indicators; more frequent isolations of Campylobacter spp., Escherichia coli O157:H7, and Salmonella enterica spp.; and higher rates of detection of pig-specific Bacteroides markers occurred at downstream sites than at upstream sites, suggesting additive stream inputs. Fecal indicator densities were also significantly higher when any one of these three bacterial pathogens was present and where there were higher total animal manure units; however, occasionally pathogens were present when fecal indicator levels were low or undetectable. Overall, Salmonella spp., Campylobacter spp., and E. coli O157:H7 presence was associated with season, animal manure units, and total rainfall on the day of sampling and 3 d in advance of sampling. Several of the environmental variables analyzed in this study appear to influence pathogen prevalence and therefore may be useful in predicting water quality and safety and in the improvement of watershed management practices in this and other agricultural regions.     

Navigating the Perfect Storm: Research Strategies for Socialecological Systems in a Rapidly Evolving World

The ‘Perfect Storm’ metaphor describes a combination of events that causes a surprising or dramatic impact. It lends an evolutionary perspective to how social-ecological interactions change. Thus, we argue that an improved understanding of how social-ecological systems have evolved up to the present is necessary for the modelling, understanding and anticipation of current and future social-ecological systems. Here we consider the implications of an evolutionary perspective for designing research approaches. One desirable approach is the creation of multi-decadal records produced by integrating palaeoenvironmental, instrument and documentary sources at multiple spatial scales. We also consider the potential for improved analytical and modelling approaches by developing system dynamical, cellular and agent-based models, observing complex behaviour in social-ecological systems against which to test systems dynamical theory, and drawing better lessons from history. Alongside these is the need to find more appropriate ways to communicate complex systems, risk and uncertainty to the public and to policy-makers.     

Quantitative risk assessment: How realistic are those frequency assumptions?

Although much has changed in recent decades in how the consequences are treated in risk assessment of major industrial accidents, estimation of frequencies still appears to be largely based on values from several decades ago. This paper reviews briefly some of the implications of this, drawing on lessons not only from the process industries but also from other not so obviously relevant fields such as aerospace and finance, where the significance of such factors such as organizational culture, normalization of deviance, ownership, demographic change, etc. is becoming increasingly recognized in the analysis and hence the control of risk.Failure to consider such factors and their effects can pose a problem, because risk assessment is not simply an abstract concept but can have a real influence on the level of risk. If protective measures such as the safety culture of the site, etc. can be shown to significantly change the risk zone, this can persuade the risk generator to improve those factors or take other steps to reduce the risk such as reducing the inventory in the process. Conversely, assessments conducted for well-run companies may misrepresent the risk if the site ownership changes to a financial holding company with a focus on maximizing short-term profit and resale of the assets, and it can be difficult even for well-motivated management to justify protective measures if they produce no apparent difference in the risk.This paper introduces these and other issues for consideration in the symposium which follows.     

Blast damage to storage tanks and steel clad buildings

The 2005 Buncefield vapour cloud explosion showed the huge cost associated with blast damage to commercial property surrounding a major explosion incident. In most cases there was serious disruption to business activity; in many cases the buildings had to be demolished or abandoned for long periods until extensive repairs were carried out.Another key feature of this and other recent vapour cloud explosions has been the damage done to storage tanks. The blasts almost invariably cause immediate top and bund fires in any tanks surrounded by the vapour – even if they contain relatively high flashpoint materials such as diesel.The first part of this paper describes the patterns of damage observed in buildings in the industrial estates around Buncefield. Methods for assessing the degree of external and internal damage are presented.The second part of the paper deals with failure modes and ignition of various types of liquid storage tank during vapour cloud explosions. Again, the Buncefield data provides excellent examples that illustrate the importance of tank design, fill level, location relative to the cloud, etc.     

Stable isotope analysis in two sympatric populations of bottlenose dolphins <Emphasis Type="Italic">Tursiops truncatus</Emphasis>: evidence of resource partitioning?

Skin and muscle from 43 bottlenose dolphins (38 juveniles/adults, 5 calves) stranded in NW Spain were analysed to determine whether stable isotope ratios (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N) could be used to assess dietary variation, habitat segregation and population substructure. Results were compared with published stomach contents data. Stable isotope ratios from 17 known prey species were also determined. Isotope ratios of the main prey (blue whiting, hake) varied significantly in relation to fish body size. Dolphin calves showed significant heavy isotope enrichments compared to adult females. Excluding calves, δ¹⁵N decreased with increasing dolphin body size, probably related to an ontogenetic shift in diet towards species at lower trophic levels, e.g. on blue whiting as suggested by stomach content results. Bottlenose dolphins were divided into two putative populations (North, South) based on previous genetic studies, and values of δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N differed significantly between these two groups, confirming the existence of population structuring.     

Variation in plasma levels of insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) in lingcod: relationships among season,size, and gonadal steroids

The physiological response of a fish to its environment is mediated through the endocrine axis controlling growth. Therefore, growth-regulating hormone levels can serve as ecologically relevant indicators of fish growth rate. We quantified variation in plasma insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) to evaluate its potential as an indicator of growth in lingcod, an economically and ecologically important bottomfish species in the northeast Pacific. An information-theoretic model selection approach was used to test the hypothesis that variation in lingcod IGF-I is related to season, body size, and gonadal steroid concentration. Season and a length × season interaction were the most important predictors of plasma IGF-I among the variables we evaluated, suggesting that season and body size should be explicitly accounted for when interpreting endocrine patterns in wild fish populations. This is among the few studies that have measured and interpreted patterns of IGF-I in wild fish and the first to describe seasonal endocrine profiles in lingcod.     

Synchronous aggregated pseudo-copulation of the sea star <Emphasis Type="Italic">Archaster angulatus</Emphasis> Müller &; Troschel, 1842 (Echinodermata: Asteroidea) and its reproductive cycle in south-western Australia

Mass individual pairing or pseudo-copulation of the sea star Archaster angulatus was observed in November and December 2009, suggesting a late-spring/summer spawning period for this species on the west coast of Australia. Detailed measurements were made on the second of these occasions. Density of sea stars was 1.11 per m² and 68.5% were in mating pairs. Copulating pairs were mostly male on female, occasionally male on male. There was no difference in size between males and females in mating pairs. No evidence was found to indicate mating and spawning is coincident with lunar or tidal cycles. Females outnumbered males by more than 20%, but the difference in sex ratio was not statistically significant. Analysis of the reproductive cycle revealed that gonad indices reached their peak in October and declined from then until January. Histological sections of gonads confirmed that sea stars are in peak reproductive condition in October and November and are fully spent by January. Males have a much lower (ca. 1/3rd) gonad index than females when each are in peak reproductive condition, the second lowest recorded for any sea star. Pyloric caecae indices showed little annual variation and monthly averages of just 3–4% are among the lowest ever recorded for an asteroid. It is suggested that these characteristics are associated with the copulatory behaviour of the deposit feeding A. angulatus, enabling the species to maintain a high level of fertilisation success while also minimising the allocation of energy to gonad development in habitats with low or variable food availability. However, it is still difficult to explain why a species which ensures a high level of fertilisation by pseudo-copulation also does this en masse and synchronously. One hypothesis is that competition for males and the benefits of having eggs fertilised by multiple males favours both synchrony and aggregation.     

Ambient concentrations of airborne endotoxin in two cities in the interior of British Columbia, Canada

This study measured and analyzed the outdoor airborne endotoxin concentration, on particulate matter (PM2·? and PM1?), for two cities in the interior of British Columbia, Canada. Samples were collected throughout one seasonal cycle, from October 2005 to September 2006. It was found that concentrations were generally highest in the summer and fall, and lowest in the winter and spring. Temperature and relative humidity were found to be most influential, with highest endotoxin concentrations recorded during warm periods and moderate relative humidity (35 to 75 percent). No clear association of concentration with wind direction was observed. Results were comparable between the two cities considered in this study, and concentrations were similar to or slightly higher than those reported by other studies considering urban locations. Endotoxin concentration was also found to be positively associated with agricultural dust sources identified by a source apportionment study conducted at one of the sampling locations.     

Conservation of the Critically Endangered Eastern Australian Population of the Grey Nurse Shark (Carcharias taurus) Through Cross-Jurisdictional Management of a Network of Marine-Protected Areas

Between 2001 and 2009, 26 marine-protected areas (MPA) were established on the east Australian seaboard, at least in part, to manage human interactions with a critically endangered population of grey nurse shark, Carcharias taurus. This network is spread across six MPA systems and includes all 19 sites outlined in the National Recovery Plan for C. taurus, though five sites remain open to some forms of fishing. The reserve network has complex cross-jurisdictional management, as the sharks occur in waters controlled by the Australian states of New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland, as well as by the Commonwealth (Federal) government. Jurisdiction is further complicated by fisheries and conservation departments both engaging in management activities within each state. This has resulted in protected area types that include IUCN category II equivalent zones in NSW, Queensland, and Commonwealth marine parks that either overlay or complement another large scaled network of protected sites called critical habitats. Across the network, seven and eight rule permutations for diving and fishing, respectively, are applied to this population of sharks. Besides sites identified by the recovery plan, additional sites have been protected as part of the general development of MPA networks. A case study at one of these sites, which historically was known to be occupied by C. taurus but had been abandoned, appears to shows re-establishment of an aggregation of juvenile and sub-adult sharks. Concurrent with the re-establishment of the aggregation, a local dive operator increased seasonal dive visitation rates at the site fourfold. As a precautionary measure, protection of abandoned sites, which includes nursery and gestating female habitats are options that may assist recovery of the east coast population of C. taurus.